If there’s anything that you can be certain about with a weather forecast it’s that you can’t guarantee it’ll be entirely accurate.
That is especially true when talking about long term weather patterns – like the unexpected Big Freeze of 2009, which no one saw coming.
Well, now the Met Office has developed a method that will accurately predict the weather at winter a year in advance.
Using a £100 million supercomputer the forecaster now believes it can call the weather with a 62% accuracy.
Previously, scientists had thought it impossible to pattern the weather system – the North Atlantic Oscillation – that drives our winter weather.
But using the supercompiter, which performs 16,000 trillion calculations a second, they have been able to look at 35 previous winters and mark out a tend.
The results have been published in the Nature Geoscience and lead author Dr Nick Dunstone told the Mail Online: ‘This is an exciting first step in developing useful winter climate predictions on longer timescales.
‘Understanding and predicting the changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could have significant economic benefits, including potential boosts in climate services for a range of sectors including transport, energy, water management and the insurance industry.’
As well as helping you know in advance if you should save for a winter coat, it could also help council’s know how much grit to have in store.
If you were wondering what this means for this winter?
We are looking at it being cooler and drier – which doesn’t sound that bad.