Met Office can predict next big freeze a year ahead


Met Office can predict next big freeze a year ahead

The Met Office is now able to better predict what next winter will be like (Picture: Rupert Hartley/REX/Shutterstock

If there’s anything that you can be certain about with a weather forecast it’s that you can’t guarantee it’ll be entirely accurate.

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That is especially true when talking about long term weather patterns – like the unexpected Big Freeze of 2009, which no one saw coming.

Well, now the Met Office has developed a method that will accurately predict the weather at winter a year in advance.

Using a £100 million supercomputer the forecaster now believes it can call the weather with a 62% accuracy.

Mandatory Credit: Photo by Ian Schofield/LNP/REX/Shutterstock (5541785f) Houses covered in snow in Sanderstead, South Croydon, South Lodnon. Snow in London, Britain - 17 Jan 2016

The Met Office has worked out a formula using a new supercomputer (Picture: Ian Schofield/LNP/REX/Shutterstock)

Previously, scientists had thought it impossible to pattern the weather system – the North Atlantic Oscillation – that drives our winter weather.

But using the supercompiter, which performs 16,000 trillion calculations a second, they have been able to look at 35 previous winters and mark out a tend.

The results have been published in the Nature Geoscience and lead author Dr Nick Dunstone told the Mail Online: ‘This is an exciting first step in developing useful winter climate predictions on longer timescales.

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The new model could help guide council’s on how best to tackle the coming winter (Picture: London News Pictures/REX/Shutterstock)

‘Understanding and predicting the changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could have significant economic benefits, including potential boosts in climate services for a range of sectors including transport, energy, water management and the insurance industry.’

As well as helping you know in advance if you should save for a winter coat, it could also help council’s know how much grit to have in store.

If you were wondering what this means for this winter?

We are looking at it being cooler and drier – which doesn’t sound that bad.

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